2026-05-17 Domingo

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2025, Ethereum: Life Through Death

By 2025, Ethereum faced an identity crisis, caught between Bitcoin's "digital gold" narrative and high-performance competitors like Solana. Regulatory clarity emerged with the U.S. CLARITY Act classifying ETH as a commodity, while the SEC’s "Project Crypto" acknowledged its decentralized nature, allowing staking rewards without securities classification. The 2024 Dencun upgrade, intended to reduce L2 costs via EIP-4844, backfired—L2s thrived but paid minimal fees to L1, crashing Ethereum’s revenue and raising sustainability concerns. The December 2025 Fusaka upgrade addressed this with EIP-7918, tying Blob fees to L1 execution costs, ensuring L2s contribute fairly to L1 revenue. PeerDAS (EIP-7594) expanded data capacity, enabling scalable, low-cost transactions. Ethereum’s new "B2B tax model" reframed its value: L2s handle high-volume, low-value transactions, while L1 provides security and settlement, capturing fees through ETH burns and staking rewards. Analysts projected an 8x increase in ETH burn rates by 2026. Valuation models now combine DCF (discounted cash flow) for protocol revenue and "trustware" pricing for its role in securing high-value assets like RWA (real-world assets), where Ethereum dominates due to its security and decentralization. Despite Solana’s edge in consumer apps, Ethereum solidified its position as the foundation for institutional-grade DeFi and RWA, transitioning into a foundational economic layer for the digital economy.

marsbit12/24 01:27

2025, Ethereum: Life Through Death

marsbit12/24 01:27

VC Retrospective 2025: Compute is King, Narrative is Dead

Venture Capital Review 2025: Compute is King, Narrative is Dead The article reflects on the challenging yet transformative year of 2025 for crypto and AI investments. While on-chain financial tools and the machine economy saw significant growth, long-term crypto investors faced a difficult market structure plagued by a "negative prisoner's dilemma," premature token unlocks, and a major market failure in October that triggered industry-wide deleveraging. Despite these setbacks, the value creation in crypto and AI over the past decade has been immense, far outpacing other regions and sectors. The "Magnificent 7" tech giants and crypto assets collectively added trillions in market cap. The key lesson from 2025 is that value accrued to the narratives but to the owners of physical and financial bottlenecks: power, semiconductors, and scarce compute. Public market winners were companies like NVIDIA, TSMC, IREN, and Bloom Energy. In software, value flowed to embedded, "must-have" platforms (e.g., Alphabet, Meta) rather than optional tools. In private markets, foundational AI companies grew rapidly but faced fragility, while value-controlling companies (e.g., Applied Intuition, Anduril) were better positioned. Tokenized networks were the weakest performers, as usage failed to translate into token value capture. The core takeaway is that the market rewarded ownership of choke points and punished projects lacking control over cash flow or compute. For 2026, the investment focus shifts downstream to: (1) machine transaction surfaces (payments, billing, compliance), (2) applied infrastructure with existing budgets, and (3) high-conviction, non-consensus opportunities. The allocation will temporarily favor equity over tokens until market structure issues are resolved. The author concludes that a major shakeout is coming, but it also presents significant opportunity. The need to move beyond collective illusions and focus on real, budget-backed economic activity is paramount.

比推12/23 23:11

VC Retrospective 2025: Compute is King, Narrative is Dead

比推12/23 23:11

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