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Is a $100,000 Bitcoin Fake Due to Inflation?

Recent analysis by Galaxy Research indicates that, when adjusted for inflation using 2020 U.S. dollar purchasing power, Bitcoin's actual value was approximately $99,848—falling just short of the symbolic $100,000 milestone. This discrepancy highlights how inflation has quietly redefined nominal price achievements in fiat terms, a particularly relevant issue in an institution-driven market cycle. Inflation has significantly eroded the dollar's value in recent years. To match the purchasing power of $100,000 in 2020, Bitcoin’s nominal price would need to reach nearly $125,000. The recent cycle’s peak approached this adjusted threshold, fueling debate. For institutional investors like pension funds, real returns—gains after inflation—are the true measure of success, representing a key test for Bitcoin’s it matures into a macro asset. Market reactions reflect this value divergence. After its October peak, Bitcoin’s price fell 30%, and U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw assets under management drop from $169.5 billion to $120.7 billion by early December. However, on-chain data shows underlying strength, with the realized market cap reaching a new all-time high of $1.125 trillion, indicating a solidifying long-term holder base. Future trends depend on several factors: monetary policy shifts affecting nominal value, persistent inflation potentially hollowing out new highs, and ETF-driven demand potentially pushing prices past inflation-adjusted resistance. Citi projects a base case of $143,000 by 2026, with an optimistic target exceeding $189,000, largely dependent on ETF inflows. Ultimately, inflation makes Bitcoin’s fiat milestones a moving target. Ironically, while often hailed as an inflation hedge, Bitcoin’s symbolic price achievements are themselves distorted by inflation it seeks to hedge against. The focus moving forward should be less on the nominal number and more on the actual purchasing power it represents.

marsbit12/24 05:06

Is a $100,000 Bitcoin Fake Due to Inflation?

marsbit12/24 05:06

PENGU down 73% in 5 months – Why the slump isn’t over yet

PENGU, the memecoin of the Pudgy Penguins NFT ecosystem, has experienced a severe 73.5% price decline over the past five months, dropping from $0.032 in August to $0.0086. This slump reflects both falling NFT sales volume and a broader market downturn. Despite some on-chain data showing token accumulation as holders move PENGU off exchanges, the selling pressure remains dominant. Key support levels have been broken, and with no significant buying pressure indicated by the declining OBV, further losses are anticipated. Price targets for the coming weeks suggest a potential drop toward the $0.0054 and $0.0039 support levels. A bearish recovery is not expected soon.

ambcrypto12/24 05:03

PENGU down 73% in 5 months – Why the slump isn’t over yet

ambcrypto12/24 05:03

Lighter TGE Imminent: A Complete Overview of the Timeline, On-Chain Signals, and Market Pricing

An article titled "Lighter is about to TGE: A Complete Overview of the Timeline, On-Chain Signals, and Market Pricing" discusses the imminent Token Generation Event (TGE) for the Lighter (LIT) project. Key developments include its addition to Coinbase's listing roadmap, a deadline for airdrop address registration, and the launch of pre-launch perpetual contracts on Binance. On-chain data shows the transfer of 250 million LIT (25% of total supply) to a new address, strongly hinting at an upcoming airdrop. Market predictions on Polymarket suggest the TGE is most likely to occur around December 29th. Lighter is a perpetual contract trading platform built on Ethereum L2, leading its sector with $232.3B in trading volume over the past 30 days and a TVL exceeding $1.4B. Its core philosophy is to combine CEX speed with DEX security, opting for a modular L2 approach integrated with Ethereum rather than building an independent L1. Pre-launch trading on Binance values LIT at approximately $3.2, giving Lighter a Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of around $3.2 billion. Analyst predictions for the FDV post-TGE range from a bear case of $1.5B ($1.5 per token) to a bull case of $12.5B ($12.5 per token). The article concludes by cautioning users that airdrop rewards are not final until distributed, as the team is currently analyzing data to remove points earned by sybil addresses and wash trading.

marsbit12/24 04:46

Lighter TGE Imminent: A Complete Overview of the Timeline, On-Chain Signals, and Market Pricing

marsbit12/24 04:46

NIGHT, with a Daily Trading Volume of Nearly $10 Billion, Actually Comes from the 'Outdated' Cardano?

The NIGHT token, associated with Cardano's privacy-focused sidechain Midnight, recently achieved a 24-hour trading volume of nearly $10 billion shortly after its listing on major exchanges like Binance, OKX, and Bybit. Its price surged over 3x from around $0.025 to approximately $0.114 within two weeks, though it later corrected to about $0.08. Developed by Cardano’s parent company IOG, Midnight emphasizes "programmable data protection" using zero-knowledge proofs (ZKPs) accessible via TypeScript APIs, targeting enterprise adoption with optional privacy features. The project employs a dual-token model: NIGHT for governance and generating DUST, which serves as gas and privacy fees. A significant airdrop to 37 million addresses across multiple blockchains and partnerships with exchanges distributed nearly 30% of the total 24 billion NIGHT supply, fueling market excitement. Cardano plans to boost its ecosystem in 2026 with scalability upgrades, Midnight’s mainnet launch, native stablecoin integrations, and enhanced interoperability—all supported by increased funding for marketing, investments, and DeFi liquidity.

marsbit12/24 04:43

NIGHT, with a Daily Trading Volume of Nearly $10 Billion, Actually Comes from the 'Outdated' Cardano?

marsbit12/24 04:43

Ethereum Pulls Back on ETF Outflows, but Corporate Treasuries Continue to Add Exposure

Ethereum's market structure reveals a divergence between weak ETF inflows and steady corporate accumulation. While U.S.-listed Ethereum ETFs, including BlackRock’s, show flat or negative flows, corporate treasuries like Bitmine Immersion Technologies continue adding ETH—now holding over 4 million ETH. This suggests long-term confidence in Ethereum’s utility, providing underlying support near the $3,000 level despite short-term caution in ETF demand. The market remains range-bound, balancing institutional hesitation with strategic corporate buying.

bitcoinist12/24 04:31

Ethereum Pulls Back on ETF Outflows, but Corporate Treasuries Continue to Add Exposure

bitcoinist12/24 04:31

Midnight – Is NIGHT’s pullback just a pause amid 12% OI drop?

Midnight (NIGHT), a zero-knowledge privacy blockchain, is experiencing a shift in market dynamics. Over a 24-hour period, trading volume dropped 50% to $3.97 billion, and Open Interest (OI) in derivatives fell 12%, indicating $12.7 million exiting the market. This suggests short-term bearish pressure, further supported by a negative funding rate showing more short positions than longs. However, the spot market tells a different story. Investors remain bullish, with $301 million in spot purchases over five days, including a single-day buy of $3.24 million. This strong accumulation is tightening the token supply. The Accumulation/Distribution (A/D) indicator remains positive, confirming ongoing buying interest. Analysis of the liquidation heatmap points to a bullish outcome, with liquidity clusters above the current price acting as a magnet for upward movement and limited downside risk. The data suggests the recent pullback is a temporary pause rather than a reversal, setting the stage for a potential upward trend if current sentiment holds.

ambcrypto12/24 04:26

Midnight – Is NIGHT’s pullback just a pause amid 12% OI drop?

ambcrypto12/24 04:26

Kalshi's First Research Report Released: How Collective Intelligence Outperforms Wall Street Think Tanks in Predicting CPI

Kalshi Research's inaugural report demonstrates that prediction markets significantly outperform Wall Street consensus forecasts in predicting year-over-year CPI data, particularly during economic shocks. The study, analyzing data from February 2023 to mid-2025, shows Kalshi’s predictions had a 40.1% lower mean absolute error (MAE) than consensus forecasts overall. During major shocks (deviations >0.2 percentage points), Kalshi’s MAE was 50–60% lower, and for moderate shocks (0.1–0.2 points), it was 50–56.2% lower. When market predictions diverged from consensus by over 0.1 points, they correctly signaled a shock about 81% of the time and were more accurate in 75% of cases. The outperformance is attributed to diverse participant insights, direct financial incentives for accuracy, and efficient aggregation of dispersed information. These findings suggest prediction markets provide a valuable complementary signal, especially in volatile periods where traditional models often fail.

marsbit12/24 04:21

Kalshi's First Research Report Released: How Collective Intelligence Outperforms Wall Street Think Tanks in Predicting CPI

marsbit12/24 04:21

Lighter TGE Imminent: Full Overview of Timeline, On-Chain Signals, and Market Pricing

Lighter, a perpetual contract trading platform built on Ethereum L2, is expected to undergo its Token Generation Event (TGE) soon, with market speculation pointing to a window between December 24 and January 1. Key signals include its recent addition to Coinbase's listing roadmap, a Binance perpetual futures pre-market listing, and on-chain movements of 250 million LIT tokens (25% of total supply) suspected to be for airdrop distribution. Data from DeFiLlama shows Lighter leading the Perp DEX sector with $232.3B in trading volume over the past 30 days and a TVL exceeding $1.4B. The project distinguishes itself by leveraging Ethereum's ecosystem rather than building an independent L1, aiming to combine CEX efficiency with DEX security. Pre-market trading on Binance values LIT at around $3.2, implying a fully diluted valuation (FDV) of approximately $3.2B. Market analysts project a range of potential valuations: a bear case of $1.5B FDV ($1.5 per token), a base case of $3B–$4.2B FDV, and a bullish scenario of $7.5B–$12.5B FDV. Users are advised to monitor official announcements closely, as the team is currently reviewing Sybil and wash-trading activities before final airdrop distribution.

Odaily星球日报12/24 04:18

Lighter TGE Imminent: Full Overview of Timeline, On-Chain Signals, and Market Pricing

Odaily星球日报12/24 04:18

The 'Execution Line' Sweeping the Internet: The Shattering of the American Dream, The Awakening of the Crypto Dream

The term "Execution Line" has gone viral on Chinese social media, originating from a video about homeless life in the U.S. and sparking widespread discussion. It refers to a financial tipping point—when savings, income drop below a critical threshold, triggering irreversible collapse into unemployment, debt, or homelessness. This concept resonates amid rising U.S. debt and inflation, shattering the illusion of the American Dream. Similarly, the crypto world faces its own brutal "execution line." While U.S. financial ruin unfolds gradually through medical bills or job loss, crypto’s version is swift and merciless: leverage liquidations, exchange hacks, and rug pulls can wipe out fortunes in minutes. On October 11, 2025, a tweet announcing 100% tariffs on Chinese goods triggered a market panic, leading to $19.3 billion in crypto liquidations and massive price crashes. Throughout the year, hacking incidents, like the $1.5 billion Bybit theft, totaled over $3.4 billion in losses. Unlike national systems with safety nets, crypto offers no bailouts or buffers. High leverage, emotional trading, and low regulatory oversight amplify risks, leaving individuals vulnerable. The discussion serves as a wake-up call: rather than chasing dreams of quick wealth, participants should prioritize discipline, risk management, and resilient asset allocation to survive in a high-stakes environment.

marsbit12/24 04:06

The 'Execution Line' Sweeping the Internet: The Shattering of the American Dream, The Awakening of the Crypto Dream

marsbit12/24 04:06

Kalshi's First Research Report Released: How Collective Intelligence Outperforms Wall Street Think Tanks in Predicting CPI

Kalshi Research's inaugural report demonstrates that prediction markets consistently outperform Wall Street consensus forecasts in predicting the U.S. year-over-year CPI inflation rate. The study, covering over 25 monthly CPI releases from February 2023 to mid-2025, shows Kalshi’s market-implied forecasts had a 40.1% lower mean absolute error (MAE) than consensus predictions across all environments. The advantage was most pronounced during economic "shocks." For large surprises (over 0.2 percentage points), Kalshi's forecasts were 50% more accurate a week before the data release, improving to 60% more accurate the day before. For medium surprises (0.1-0.2 percentage points), the advantage was similarly 50%, rising to 56.2% closer to the release. Crucially, a divergence of over 0.1 percentage points between the market forecast and consensus served as a strong signal, with an 81.2% probability that a shock would occur. When the two forecasts disagreed, the market prediction was more accurate 75% of the time. The report attributes this "Shock Alpha" to three factors: the "wisdom of crowds" aggregating diverse information, superior incentive structures that reward accuracy over conformity, and more efficient information synthesis, even with the same public data. This suggests prediction markets provide a valuable, differentiated signal for investors and policymakers, especially during periods of high uncertainty.

Odaily星球日报12/24 04:00

Kalshi's First Research Report Released: How Collective Intelligence Outperforms Wall Street Think Tanks in Predicting CPI

Odaily星球日报12/24 04:00

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