# Пов'язані статті щодо Volatility

Центр новин HTX надає останні статті та поглиблений аналіз на тему "Volatility", що охоплює ринкові тренди, оновлення проєктів, технологічні розробки та регуляторну політику в криптоіндустрії.

BTC on a Roller Coaster, HYPE Hits New Highs | Guest Analysis

**Market Analysis: BTC Volatility and HYPE's New Highs** This week, markets experienced significant volatility. Macro pressures intensified with a bond market sell-off, rising rate hike expectations, and oil surpassing $110. Bitcoin (BTC) broke below $78K and is currently testing a critical range. The core debate centers on the nature of BTC's rally from its February low: Is it the start of a new uptrend (Path 1: bullish) or merely a B-wave rally within a larger monthly corrective structure (Path 2: bearish)? The outcome of the battle in the $78,500-$79,500 zone is key this week. * **For BTC:** * **Mid-term:** Maintain a neutral, cash position. * **Short-term:** Two contingency plans with ≤30% position size and strict stop-losses: * **Plan A (Bearish):** Sell if price rebounds but faces resistance in the $78,500-$79,500 zone. * **Plan B (Bearish):** Sell if price convincingly breaks below the $73,500-$75,000 support. * A break above $90,000-$93,100 would strongly favor the bullish Path 1 scenario. * **For HYPE:** HYPE continues its independent rally, hitting new highs with over 10% gains this week. The trend remains bullish as long as price holds above the key support at $38.41. * **Short-term Strategies (≤30% position):** * **Plan A (Bullish):** Buy on a confirmed break above $45.76. * **Plan B (Bearish):** Sell short on a confirmed break below $45.76. * **Plan C (Bullish):** Buy on a pullback finding support near $38.41. **Trade Review:** Last week, a disciplined 1x leveraged BTC long trade at $79,812, based on model signals, was closed at $81,426 for a ~2.02% profit. **Important:** Market conditions change rapidly. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Trade with caution and proper risk management.

marsbit11 хв тому

BTC on a Roller Coaster, HYPE Hits New Highs | Guest Analysis

marsbit11 хв тому

Bitcoin Slump Forces Metaplanet Into $728M Quarterly Loss

Metaplanet, a Tokyo-listed company, reported an ordinary loss of approximately $728 million for the first quarter of 2026. This significant loss was driven by non-cash valuation markdowns on its Bitcoin holdings, as the price of BTC fell about 24% during the period. Despite the loss, the company aggressively increased its Bitcoin treasury to 40,177 BTC, making it the world's third-largest publicly listed Bitcoin holder. It funded these purchases partly through a Bitcoin-collateralized credit facility. In contrast to the bottom-line loss, Metaplanet's operating performance was strong. It reported Q1 operating income of about $14.38 million on net sales of $19.5 million, achieving a 73.6% operating margin. Revenue more than tripled year-over-year, primarily from its Bitcoin Income Generation unit. The company's preferred performance metric, Bitcoin per diluted share, increased by 2.8% for the quarter. Metaplanet maintained its full-year 2026 sales and operating profit guidance but did not provide net income guidance due to Bitcoin price sensitivity.

bitcoinist2 дні тому 08:02

Bitcoin Slump Forces Metaplanet Into $728M Quarterly Loss

bitcoinist2 дні тому 08:02

Bitcoin Settles Under $80K as Market Sentiment Turns Cautious

Bitcoin remained below $80,000 on Thursday, trading near $79,800 and still under its weekly open price of $82,500, as market sentiment turned cautious. The crypto market was muted, with altcoins posting steep losses. A 6% rise in the U.S. Producer Price Index, hitting its highest annual level since 2022, fueled inflation fears and pressured risk assets. The Altcoin Season indicator fell from 50 to 43 out of 100, reflecting a shift to risk-off sentiment. Market data showed increased activity with 24-hour futures volume up 14%, but open interest fell 2% to $133 billion, indicating position unwinding. Total market liquidations surged 68% to around $400 million, predominantly from long positions. For Bitcoin specifically, $102 million of its $117 million in liquidations were longs, suggesting the market was overly positioned for a bullish breakout above the key $82,000 resistance (200-day moving average). Global political tensions, specifically pointed remarks from China's leader regarding Taiwan during a meeting with former U.S. President Trump, further shook risk sentiment, contributing to declines in Asian stocks and crypto. Traders are now watching the $78,000 level as Bitcoin's next crucial support. Among major altcoins, Solana saw significant losses, while Dogecoin was a rare gainer. The report also noted massive outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs are shaking market momentum.

TheNewsCrypto05/14 12:32

Bitcoin Settles Under $80K as Market Sentiment Turns Cautious

TheNewsCrypto05/14 12:32

IBIT Options Metrics Live on Glassnode

Glassnode has expanded its institutional-grade options analytics to include BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT), the largest U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF. This development signifies Bitcoin's maturation within traditional finance, as options represent the final layer of a mature financial market, requiring deep liquidity and sophisticated risk management. IBIT options enable asset managers to hedge, traders to access Bitcoin-linked volatility, and analysts to gauge institutional positioning. A key insight is the divergence between IBIT and crypto-native venues like Deribit. For instance, as of May 5, IBIT's 1-month options skew showed a stronger preference for downside protection compared to Deribit's, indicating differing risk appetites between traditional and crypto-native participants. The new metrics suite provides over 40 data points, including open interest, volume, max pain, ATM implied volatility across tenors, and proprietary skew analytics like the IBIT Skew Index. These tools allow professionals to measure TradFi Bitcoin sentiment, compare institutional and crypto-native market views, monitor hedging pressure, and track volatility risk. IBIT options data is becoming a crucial signal for understanding Bitcoin's integration into global portfolios and institutional risk frameworks.

insights.glassnode05/14 11:38

IBIT Options Metrics Live on Glassnode

insights.glassnode05/14 11:38

Buying BTC is Not as Good as Buying Nasdaq, and This Statement Has an Expiration Date

The article, titled "Investing in Bitcoin Has an Expiration Date", discusses the recent narrative on social media that investing in U.S. tech stocks (like the Nasdaq 100) has been far superior to investing in Bitcoin. This sentiment is fueled by performance comparisons showing the Nasdaq 100 significantly outperforming Bitcoin over a specific five-year window starting in late 2021. However, the author argues that such comparisons are highly sensitive to the chosen timeframe. By shifting the starting point to other key market moments—like the COVID-19 bottom (March 2020), the FTX collapse bottom (November 2022), or the pre-Bitcoin ETF approval period (January 2024)—Bitcoin's returns often match or dramatically exceed those of the Nasdaq 100. The popular Reddit chart essentially cherry-picks a period that started near a Bitcoin cycle high and just before the massive AI-driven rally in tech stocks. The core difference lies in their asset structures. The Nasdaq 100, backed by corporate earnings, exhibits a steadier long-term upward trend. Bitcoin is a highly cyclical asset with extreme volatility, where returns are drastically different depending on where in its bull/bear cycle an investment is made. The article notes Bitcoin often acts like a leveraged version of the S&P 500, magnifying both gains and losses. Currently, Bitcoin is in a "cyclically undervalued zone," having corrected ~37% from its October 2025 peak while the Nasdaq hits new highs. Historically, peak narratives about stocks beating Bitcoin have often coincided with Bitcoin nearing cyclical lows, as seen before its major rally from late 2022. The conclusion is that declaring one asset permanently superior to another is statistically flawed; performance is entirely dependent on timing. The real challenge for investors is not picking the "better" asset, but mastering entry and exit timing.

marsbit05/14 08:34

Buying BTC is Not as Good as Buying Nasdaq, and This Statement Has an Expiration Date

marsbit05/14 08:34

Bitcoin at $80,000: Recovery Clear, But Bullish Conviction Lacking

Bitcoin has reclaimed $80K, supported by renewed US ETF inflows, spot buying activity, and a constructive shift in trader positioning. The relative unrealized loss metric has compressed sharply from its February peak, suggesting the sell-off was a shallow correction rather than a deep bear market. However, the recovery lacks the conviction of prior bull cycles, as evidenced by net capital inflows ($2.8B/month) remaining well below the $10B+ monthly thresholds seen in previous major uptrends. Key technical levels show support near $76.9K and resistance around $86.9K. Derivatives markets signal calmer conditions, with implied volatility compressing and skew normalizing, indicating reduced demand for downside protection. While market structure is improving, sustained movement above the current supply zone will likely require stronger spot demand and deeper capital rotation.

marsbit05/14 07:52

Bitcoin at $80,000: Recovery Clear, But Bullish Conviction Lacking

marsbit05/14 07:52

The 3 Bitcoin Rules That Tell When The Bear Market Is Fully Over

Crypto analyst Bee outlines three Bitcoin rules to identify the end of the bear market: it lasts at least 350 days, the bottom never forms without touching the 350-day moving average (MA 350), and the price always drops more than expected. Based on these, he argues the current bear market is not over, projecting a potential drop to around $46,000 to tag the MA 350 at $47,000 before a true bottom forms. Despite a recent rally above $82,000, Bitcoin struggles to hold $80,000 amid hot CPI data and stalled U.S.-Iran talks, with Bee expecting another downtrend. Another analyst, Colin, is more open to the cycle bottom being in than a month ago but still anticipates a retest of the $60,000-$70,000 range lows later this year. Alternatively, he notes that if the bottom isn't in, prolonged sideways trading reduces the odds of a significantly lower floor. Bitcoin is currently trading around $81,200.

bitcoinist05/13 22:33

The 3 Bitcoin Rules That Tell When The Bear Market Is Fully Over

bitcoinist05/13 22:33

Rally Without Conviction

The macro backdrop remains challenging with persistent inflation and high Treasury yields, but Bitcoin has shown resilience. Despite the recent rally to around $82k from a low of $60k, the recovery lacks the strong conviction of prior bull market cycles. Key on-chain data shows that while the extreme market fear from February has subsided, unrealized losses are low, and ETF inflows have turned positive, the underlying capital inflow remains modest. The current monthly net capital flow is around $2.8B, significantly below the $10B+ levels typical of major rally initiations. Market structure is improving, with renewed spot buying and institutional ETF demand acting as tailwinds. However, Bitcoin faces significant overhead resistance near $87k, where a large cohort of investors bought during the previous consolidation. The path higher will require stronger sustained capital inflows and spot participation to absorb this supply. Overall, this rally represents a structurally supported recovery rather than a full-fledged, high-conviction bull market breakout.

insights.glassnode05/13 14:48

Rally Without Conviction

insights.glassnode05/13 14:48

Wintermute Sounds Alarm: Bitcoin Surge A Short Squeeze, Not Sustainable Growth

Wintermute warns that Bitcoin's recent surge to $83,000 is primarily a short squeeze rather than sustainable growth, driven by a $10B jump in derivatives open interest and low spot volumes. The market maker cautions that short-covering differs from conviction buying, and a retracement is possible unless genuine spot demand emerges. While noting positive long-term factors like strong ETF inflows and low exchange reserves, the firm highlights near-term risks including overbought RSI levels and dependence on equity market sentiment. Bitcoin's ability to hold $80,000 support through potential macro shocks will be a key test of the rally's durability.

bitcoinist05/13 04:02

Wintermute Sounds Alarm: Bitcoin Surge A Short Squeeze, Not Sustainable Growth

bitcoinist05/13 04:02

Short Positions Have Been Squeezed Out: Will the Next Leg of the U.S. Stock AI Rally Continue in Seoul?

"Short Squeeze Exhausted: Will the Next Leg of the AI Rally Continue in Seoul?" A Nomura report suggests the US AI stock rally, which saw the S&P 500 rise ~16.6% in 28 days largely driven by 10 key stocks, may be pausing. The fuel from short covering, CTA fund positioning, and volatility-control strategies is nearing its limit. For the rally to continue, new momentum from retail and sentiment-driven FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) is needed. South Korea's market provided a potential answer on the very day the report was published. The KOSPI index surged 4.32%, triggering a buy-side circuit breaker, led by massive gains in chip giants SK Hynix (+11.98%) and Samsung. This surge is characterized by retail "hynix FOMO" and overseas funds precisely buying into AI themes via chip-focused ETFs, shifting from broad Korean market ETFs. The Korean rally is a high-beta extension of the US AI capital expenditure story, as major cloud providers plan massive infrastructure spending, directly benefiting memory chip leaders. However, this linkage also implies vulnerability. The sustainability of this next leg depends on whether US tech stocks correct, the trajectory of US inflation (with upcoming CPI data key), and geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz. Seoul has emerged as the new epicenter of the AI trade, but its fate remains tied to these broader macro and market dynamics.

marsbit05/12 07:24

Short Positions Have Been Squeezed Out: Will the Next Leg of the U.S. Stock AI Rally Continue in Seoul?

marsbit05/12 07:24

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