Perspective: The current AI supercycle will last 15 years, but most are still buying stocks in the first FOMO stage
This article outlines a 15-year AI supercycle, segmented into four investment stages. It argues that while most investors are still focused on the first stage, smart money is already moving to the third.
**Stage 1: The Foundation (2023-2025) - Priced In**
The semiconductor layer (e.g., NVIDIA, AMD) is complete. While growth continues, the historic entry opportunity is over as risk/reward has compressed.
**Stage 2: The Build-Out (2025-2027) - In Progress**
This phase involves building the necessary physical infrastructure: power/utilities (CEG), cooling (VRT), networking (ANET), and nuclear SMRs (OKLO, SMR). Significant upside remains, but obvious names have already moved.
**Stage 3: The Asymmetric Bet (2026-2028) - Positioning Window**
AI moves into the physical world. Key areas include robotics/autonomy (Tesla Optimus), space/defense/drones (Rocket Lab, LUNR), and critical materials. This stage presents the best asymmetric risk/reward and is where positioning should occur now.
**Stage 4: The Endgame (2028+) - Software Dominance**
The mega-cap cloud platforms (Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta), with their massive capital expenditure, will build the AI software layer and AGI infrastructure, aiming to win the entire cycle.
**Core Conclusion:** The cycle is confirmed in Stage 2. Stage 3 (robotics, space, defense, nuclear SMRs) is where capital is currently rotating for maximum opportunity, while the majority of investors are expected to be 12 months behind this shift.
marsbit05/09 06:37
