# Polymarket Articoli collegati

Il Centro Notizie HTX fornisce gli articoli più recenti e le analisi più approfondite su "Polymarket", coprendo tendenze di mercato, aggiornamenti sui progetti, sviluppi tecnologici e politiche normative nel settore crypto.

The Wall Street Journal: Why Does Almost Everyone Lose Money Predicting Markets, Except for a Few 'Sharks'?

"The Wall Street Journal investigates why most users lose money on prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, while a small fraction of sophisticated 'sharks' profit massively. Analysis shows over 70% of Polymarket users lose, with 67% of profits flowing to just 0.1% of accounts. On Kalshi, for every winning user there are 2.9 losing ones. The platforms market themselves as tools for quick riches, but the reality is dominated by professional traders and firms using algorithms, vast data resources, and high-frequency strategies that individual retail traders cannot match. These 'sharks' avoid highly unpredictable 'mention markets' (betting on specific words being said), which are popular with casual users who often overestimate small probabilities. The WSJ analysis of over 35,000 completed Kalshi mention markets found the actual payout rate was lower than the odds implied, leading to poor returns. While supporters frame these markets as harnessing 'wisdom of the crowd,' critics point to issues like potential insider trading. The story highlights the case of John Pederson, an unemployed chef who turned $2,000 into $41,000 before losing it all on a mention market bet, ending up in a homeless shelter."

foresightnews05/13 10:12

The Wall Street Journal: Why Does Almost Everyone Lose Money Predicting Markets, Except for a Few 'Sharks'?

foresightnews05/13 10:12

Distribution is King: Robinhood is Devouring the Prediction Markets

Distribution is King: Robinhood is Consuming the Prediction Markets Robinhood has rapidly expanded into prediction markets by integrating Kalshi's event contracts, trading 88 billion contracts in Q1 2026 alone. Its key advantage is its 27.4 million funded users and its ability to cross-sell across stocks, crypto, options, and now prediction markets. This positions Robinhood to evolve from a broker to an integrated information-pricing platform, where event contracts for outcomes like earnings reports are displayed alongside the related assets. While dedicated platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket currently dominate, they face existential risk from potential US bans on sports betting contracts, which form a majority of their revenue. Robinhood, through its Rothera LLC joint venture, is moving to own the entire prediction market stack, capturing more revenue and adding interest income from user collateral. Financial modeling suggests Robinhood's prediction market segment could generate $8.25B to $15.75B in revenue by 2028, valuing it between $120B and $300B. Robinhood's deep integration, multi-asset user base, and regulatory diversification create a powerful distribution moat, threatening to absorb value from standalone prediction market platforms.

marsbit05/12 09:04

Distribution is King: Robinhood is Devouring the Prediction Markets

marsbit05/12 09:04

Gate Institute: Polymarket Accelerates Growth, Gate Launches New Portal to Prediction Markets

Gate Research Institute: Polymarket Growth Accelerates, Gate Expands into Prediction Markets with New Portal This analysis examines the growth of the prediction market platform Polymarket, which has evolved from an early experiment into a major event-driven trading venue. Data shows a significant, step-like increase in trading volume and active users, though growth remains heavily tied to major political, sports, and geopolitical events. Fee and revenue growth is driven by both genuine trading demand and recent changes to platform fee structures. Polymarket's market structure is highly concentrated, with over 90% of volume in these few high-profile categories. While it functions as both an information and sentiment market, its price discovery is most active during high-attention news cycles. The platform's core value lies in creating a liquid market for trading the outcome of future events, a unique niche within crypto. Gate's recent integration of Polymarket addresses different challenges. It simplifies access by allowing users to trade with exchange-held USDT, lowering friction for its existing user base. This highlights two emerging pathways for prediction markets: Polymarket's native, on-chain model versus Gate's centralized, low-friction account integration. Both paths will likely coexist, targeting different user segments. Key challenges for Polymarket include ongoing regulatory uncertainty, reliance on cyclical event-driven demand, potential oracle or settlement disputes, and achieving sustainable user retention beyond peak event periods. The platform has proven its commercial viability and ability to scale but has yet to demonstrate it can become a stable, everyday trading category independent of major news cycles.

marsbit05/09 02:07

Gate Institute: Polymarket Accelerates Growth, Gate Launches New Portal to Prediction Markets

marsbit05/09 02:07

2026 Crypto Funding Reshuffle: Game and DePIN Are Dead, Prediction Market Duo Takes 18% of All Year's Funding with Two Deals

Cryptocurrency Funding in 2026: Gaming & DePIN Falter as Prediction Markets Dominate Data from the first four months of 2026 reveals a stark shift in crypto venture funding. The gaming and DePIN (Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Networks) sectors have seen capital nearly dry up. In contrast, the "Consumer" category, led by two massive deals for prediction market platforms Kalshi ($1B) and Polymarket ($600M), captured a significant share. These two deals alone accounted for 18% of the year's total $8.65 billion raised and exceeded the combined funding of all 47 DeFi projects. Overall, the $8.65B across 305 deals is misleading. A March surge to $4.57B was largely due to two major acquisitions (BVNK at $1.8B and Kalshi). Excluding these, the underlying monthly funding rate is approximately $1B, indicating continued softness. The "Payments" and "Consumer" sectors together consumed 72% of all capital. Another notable trend is the rise of mergers and acquisitions (M&A), with 48 deals nearly matching the 57 seed-round investments. This signals a market pivot from funding new ideas to consolidating around established leaders. The most active investors so far in 2026 are Coinbase Ventures (18 deals), Tether (13 deals), Animoca Brands (11 deals), and GSR (11 deals). Notably, a16z's pace has slowed significantly compared to previous years.

marsbit05/08 04:57

2026 Crypto Funding Reshuffle: Game and DePIN Are Dead, Prediction Market Duo Takes 18% of All Year's Funding with Two Deals

marsbit05/08 04:57

Stuck Polymarket: The Real Test After Riding the Traffic Boom Has Arrived

Polymarket, a leading prediction market platform, is facing significant technical challenges as its growth outpaces its current infrastructure on Polygon. Users are experiencing laggy transactions, unresponsive orders, and delayed confirmations, severely impacting the trading experience. In response, DeFi Engineering VP Josh Stevens outlined a comprehensive engineering overhaul. The plan includes reducing on-chain data delays, fixing order cancellation issues, rebuilding the central limit order book (CLOB), improving website performance, and developing a unified SDK and API. A major revelation was the ongoing "chain migration," indicating a potential move away from Polygon. The core issue is that Polymarket has evolved from a simple prediction market into a high-frequency trading platform, making Polygon's limitations—such as block space, gas fees, and block time—a ceiling for further growth. The migration is not just a simple chain switch but a fundamental rebuild of its trading system to support more complex products like perpetual contracts (Perps). This announcement has sparked competition among chains like Solana, Sui, and Algorand, all vying to host Polymarket. For Polygon, losing this key application, which contributes significantly to its gas fee revenue, would be a major setback. The real test for Polymarket is no longer attracting users but proving it can provide a stable, reliable trading environment that retains them.

Odaily星球日报04/27 03:19

Stuck Polymarket: The Real Test After Riding the Traffic Boom Has Arrived

Odaily星球日报04/27 03:19

Prediction Markets Cannot Exist Without Insider Trading, But Insider Trading Is Killing Them

Prediction markets face a fundamental contradiction: they rely on insider trading to generate accurate prices, yet this same activity erodes public trust and threatens their survival. Recent scandals, such as a U.S. special forces member making $400,000 on Polymarket using classified information about a raid, highlight the severity of the issue. While platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi market themselves as venues where "everyone is an expert" and encourage informed trading, they also enforce policies against illegal insider trading. The core dilemma is that these markets depend on informed insiders for price efficiency but require uninformed retail participants to provide liquidity. If insider trading is too rampant, retail traders leave, perceiving the market as unfair. If restrictions are too strict, valuable information flow dries up, reducing the market’s predictive utility. The challenge is finding a balance that maintains both accuracy and perceived fairness—a task complicated by regulatory pressures and recurring scandals.

marsbit04/27 02:35

Prediction Markets Cannot Exist Without Insider Trading, But Insider Trading Is Killing Them

marsbit04/27 02:35

Can a Hair Dryer Earn $34,000? Deciphering the Reflexivity Paradox in Prediction Markets

An individual manipulated a weather sensor at Paris Charles de Gaulle Airport with a portable heat source, causing a Polymarket weather market to settle at 22°C and earning $34,000. This incident highlights a fundamental issue in prediction markets: when a market aims to reflect reality, it also incentivizes participants to influence that reality. Prediction markets operate on two layers: platform rules (what outcome counts as a win) and data sources (what actually happened). While most focus on rules, the real vulnerability lies in the data source. If reality is recorded through a specific source, influencing that source directly affects market settlement. The article categorizes markets by their vulnerability: 1. **Single-point physical data sources** (e.g., weather stations): Easily manipulated through physical interference. 2. **Insider information markets** (e.g., MrBeast video details): Insiders like team members use non-public information to trade. Kalshi fined a剪辑师 $20,000 for insider trading. 3. **Actor-manipulated markets** (e.g., Andrew Tate’s tweet counts): The subject of the market can control the outcome. Evidence suggests Tate’sociated accounts coordinated to profit. 4. **Individual-action markets** (e.g., WNBA disruptions): A single person can execute an event to profit from their pre-placed bets. Kalshi and Polymarket handle these issues differently. Kalshi enforces strict KYC, publicly penalizes insider trading, and reports to regulators. Polymarket, with its anonymous wallet-based system, has historically been more permissive, arguing that insider information improves market accuracy. However, it cooperated with authorities in the "Van Dyke case," where a user traded on classified government information. The core paradox is reflexivity: prediction markets are designed to discover truth, but their financial incentives can distort reality. The more valuable a prediction becomes, the more likely participants are to influence the event itself. The market ceases to be a mirror of reality and instead shapes it.

marsbit04/25 03:21

Can a Hair Dryer Earn $34,000? Deciphering the Reflexivity Paradox in Prediction Markets

marsbit04/25 03:21

After 4 Months, Polymarket Helped Trump Catch the Military Operation Leaker, But at a Cost...

A U.S. Marine Corps sergeant, Gannon Ken Van Dyke, was arrested by the Department of Justice for insider trading on Polymarket, a prediction market platform. Van Dyke allegedly placed bets totaling $33,933 on events related to a U.S. military operation in Venezuela, including the ousting of President Maduro, before the action occurred in January 2026. He profited over $409,000, a return of more than 1200%. This case marks the first U.S. crackdown on insider trading using confidential government information in prediction markets. Two other addresses also profited from insider knowledge, earning a combined $630,400. In response, Polymarket introduced stricter market integrity rules in March, explicitly banning insider trading, including the use of stolen confidential information or trades by individuals who can influence event outcomes. The platform has implemented monitoring systems and may ban addresses, pursue legal action, or refer cases to authorities. While these measures enhance regulatory compliance, they may reduce Polymarket's edge in forecasting events through early information and raise user concerns about account freezes and financial security. The balance between preventing abuse and maintaining platform freedom remains a challenge.

marsbit04/25 01:54

After 4 Months, Polymarket Helped Trump Catch the Military Operation Leaker, But at a Cost...

marsbit04/25 01:54

After 4 Months, Polymarket Helped Trump Catch the Military Operation Leaker, But at a Cost...

U.S. Army Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke was arrested by the Department of Justice after allegedly using insider information to profit over $409,000 on Polymarket, a prediction market platform. He placed bets totaling $33,933 on events such as whether Venezuelan President Maduro would be ousted and if the U.S. would launch a military operation in Venezuela—events he had advance knowledge of due to his involvement in the military operation that captured Maduro in early January 2026. This case marks the first U.S. crackdown on insider trading within prediction markets. Polymarket had recently strengthened its market integrity rules, explicitly prohibiting trades based on stolen confidential information, illegal insider knowledge, or by individuals capable of influencing event outcomes. The platform has implemented monitoring systems and may ban addresses, pursue legal action, or refer cases to law enforcement. While insider trading had previously contributed to Polymarket’s reputation for early event pricing, the platform now faces a trade-off: stricter enforcement may reduce insider-driven activity and protect regulatory standing, but it could also diminish market foresight and user trust, particularly around address bans and financial security.

Odaily星球日报04/25 01:48

After 4 Months, Polymarket Helped Trump Catch the Military Operation Leaker, But at a Cost...

Odaily星球日报04/25 01:48

From Robinhood to Polymarket: Is the Era of Integrating All Assets on a Single Platform Coming?

From Robinhood to Polymarket: The Era of All-in-One Asset Platforms Is Coming Asset classes are rapidly converging. Platforms that once specialized in single categories—such as stocks, cryptocurrencies, or prediction markets—are now moving toward offering all three. Robinhood pioneered this model, starting with equities, adding crypto in 2018, and prediction markets in 2025. This strategy has proven resilient: when crypto revenues fell, other segments like options and stocks filled the gap. Now, prediction market leaders Polymarket and Kalshi are moving in the same direction, both announcing perpetual futures trading on April 21, 2026, pending regulatory approval. These futures will cover assets like Bitcoin, gold, and stocks such as Nvidia. This trend mirrors the consolidation seen in consumer tech, like smartphones replacing dedicated cameras and MP3 players. Younger users, accustomed to interacting with multiple asset types from an early age, will increasingly demand unified platforms. A key competitive advantage in prediction markets is collateral utilization—idle assets locked during betting periods. Polymarket’s move into perpetuals may be a strategy to generate yield from that capital, similar to earlier DeFi integrations like PolyAave. As the regulatory landscape evolves, traditional finance is also likely to incorporate crypto and prediction markets, further accelerating this convergence.

marsbit04/24 07:59

From Robinhood to Polymarket: Is the Era of Integrating All Assets on a Single Platform Coming?

marsbit04/24 07:59

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