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The Wall Street Journal: Why Does Almost Everyone Lose Money Predicting Markets, Except for a Few 'Sharks'?

"The Wall Street Journal investigates why most users lose money on prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, while a small fraction of sophisticated 'sharks' profit massively. Analysis shows over 70% of Polymarket users lose, with 67% of profits flowing to just 0.1% of accounts. On Kalshi, for every winning user there are 2.9 losing ones. The platforms market themselves as tools for quick riches, but the reality is dominated by professional traders and firms using algorithms, vast data resources, and high-frequency strategies that individual retail traders cannot match. These 'sharks' avoid highly unpredictable 'mention markets' (betting on specific words being said), which are popular with casual users who often overestimate small probabilities. The WSJ analysis of over 35,000 completed Kalshi mention markets found the actual payout rate was lower than the odds implied, leading to poor returns. While supporters frame these markets as harnessing 'wisdom of the crowd,' critics point to issues like potential insider trading. The story highlights the case of John Pederson, an unemployed chef who turned $2,000 into $41,000 before losing it all on a mention market bet, ending up in a homeless shelter."

foresightnews05/13 10:12

The Wall Street Journal: Why Does Almost Everyone Lose Money Predicting Markets, Except for a Few 'Sharks'?

foresightnews05/13 10:12

New York AG Sues Coinbase, Gemini Over Alleged State Law Violations

New York Attorney General Letitia James has filed a lawsuit against Coinbase and Gemini, alleging their prediction markets violate state gambling laws. The complaint argues these platforms operate as unlicensed gambling activities since outcomes rely on chance, not skill. Both companies are also accused of allowing users under 21, the legal age for mobile sports betting in New York. The suit seeks restitution for customers, repayment of illegal profits, civil penalties, and restrictions on marketing, including a ban on promoting services on college campuses. Following the news, Coinbase's stock fell roughly 10%, while Gemini's dropped about 4%.

bitcoinist04/21 20:02

New York AG Sues Coinbase, Gemini Over Alleged State Law Violations

bitcoinist04/21 20:02

Prediction Markets Under Bias

The article "Prediction Markets Under Bias" by Jeff Park of Bitwise argues against the common media portrayal of prediction markets as mere gambling or a social ill. It distinguishes between gambling and investment based on whether a participant's strategy has a positive expected value (+EV), not the market's structure. The author contends that prediction markets, like poker, are skill-based and can be a legitimate form of investment, offering individuals autonomy, truth discovery, and decentralized value. The piece critiques the common conflation of prediction markets with casino gambling, highlighting their role in risk hedging and capital efficiency, similar to insurance and securitization. A key differentiator is their precision and finite expiration, which makes prices directly anchor to factual outcomes, rewarding deep research and information advantage rather than punishing the uninformed. The author concludes that media opposition often stems from a structural bias, as these markets challenge traditional information gatekeepers and promote a more democratic, transparent system for pricing truth. The real debate is not about information having a price, but about who controls and profits from it.

marsbit04/20 12:08

Prediction Markets Under Bias

marsbit04/20 12:08

Crypto Prediction Markets Face Existential Threat — 3 States Move To Shut Traders Out

The U.S. federal government, through the CFTC and DOJ, is suing Illinois, Arizona, and Connecticut to block their attempts to shut down crypto prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi. The federal agencies argue they have exclusive jurisdiction to regulate these markets as derivatives, while the states classify them as illegal gambling. This legal clash represents a significant existential threat to the industry. A federal victory would centralize oversight under the CFTC, creating a single regulatory framework. If the states prevail, platforms would face a fragmented landscape of state gambling laws, potentially pushing markets offshore and increasing costs for traders.

bitcoinist04/03 19:32

Crypto Prediction Markets Face Existential Threat — 3 States Move To Shut Traders Out

bitcoinist04/03 19:32

CFTC sues Illinois in case that could decide how prediction markets scale in the U.S.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has sued the State of Illinois, escalating a legal battle that could determine the regulatory future of prediction markets in the U.S. The lawsuit, filed on April 2, challenges Illinois' cease-and-desist orders against platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, which the state considers unlicensed sports betting. The CFTC argues these event contracts are swaps under federal jurisdiction, preempting state regulation under the Commodity Exchange Act and the Supremacy Clause. This case tests whether prediction markets will develop as a unified financial system under federal oversight or face a fragmented, state-by-state regulatory landscape that could hinder their growth and nationwide access. The outcome may define if these platforms become core financial infrastructure or remain constrained like state-regulated gambling.

ambcrypto04/02 19:02

CFTC sues Illinois in case that could decide how prediction markets scale in the U.S.

ambcrypto04/02 19:02

Texas targets crypto, gambling loopholes amid prediction market concerns

Prediction markets have gained significant attention, particularly during the U.S. election cycle, but the rise of gambling within these markets has eroded public trust. In response, Texas Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick is pushing for legislative changes to close gambling loopholes. He aims to prevent the exploitation of federal regulations, such as those of the CFTC, to bypass state gambling prohibitions. The goal is to ensure the integrity of elections and sports in Texas. Additionally, Patrick advocates for assessing the state’s approach to emerging financial technologies, including crypto, while prioritizing consumer protection and addressing issues like crypto ATM scams. The move coincides with a decline in public interest in prediction market gambling, as shown by Google Trends data.

ambcrypto04/01 17:28

Texas targets crypto, gambling loopholes amid prediction market concerns

ambcrypto04/01 17:28

Top 6 crypto casinos of March 2026

Cryptocurrency casinos merge blockchain technology with online gambling, offering advantages like speed, security, and decentralization. They often feature provably fair algorithms and wallet-based onboarding, enhancing trust and privacy. This article highlights six leading platforms in March 2026: BC.Game emphasizes active promotions and a vast game library with a 180% welcome bonus. Wild.io integrates with Telegram, requires no KYC, and offers a 350% deposit match. Casinopunkz uses a retro pixel-art style and focuses on daily challenges. BitStarz, established in 2014, supports both crypto and fiat with a welcome package up to 5 BTC. CoinCasino provides high-value bonuses, including a 200% match up to $30,000. Katsubet features a Japanese theme and a multi-tier welcome offer of up to 5 BTC. These platforms prioritize fast payouts, transparency, and user control, though readers are advised to research risks and practice responsible gaming.

ambcrypto03/20 17:13

Top 6 crypto casinos of March 2026

ambcrypto03/20 17:13

U.S. Court Clears Path for Nevada to Take Action Against Kalshi Prediction Market

A U.S. appeals court has allowed Nevada to proceed with legal action against prediction market platform Kalshi, denying the company’s request to block a potential temporary restraining order. This could force Kalshi to suspend operations in Nevada for about two weeks until a follow-up hearing. The dispute began in March 2025 when the Nevada Gaming Control Board issued a cease-and-desist order, arguing that Kalshi’s sports-related prediction contracts violate state gambling laws. Kalshi contends that its products are federally regulated by the CFTC, which supports its position. The ruling is a setback for Kalshi and may lead to an imminent temporary ban in the state.

TheNewsCrypto03/20 09:13

U.S. Court Clears Path for Nevada to Take Action Against Kalshi Prediction Market

TheNewsCrypto03/20 09:13

Arizona Files Criminal Charges Against Kalshi Over Illegal Gambling Allegations

Arizona has filed a twenty-count case against prediction market platform Kalshi, alleging it operates an illegal gambling business by accepting bets on elections, sports, and individual performance—activities prohibited under state law. Attorney General Kris Mayes emphasized that no company is above state law. Kalshi denies the allegations, claiming it is a federally regulated financial exchange under the CFTC, not a gambling service. The case highlights tensions between state and federal regulatory authority, as a federal judge’s dismissal of Kalshi’s plea allowed state criminal proceedings to advance. This action is part of a broader state-level crackdown on prediction markets, raising debates over whether they should be regulated as gambling or financial markets.

TheNewsCrypto03/18 11:50

Arizona Files Criminal Charges Against Kalshi Over Illegal Gambling Allegations

TheNewsCrypto03/18 11:50

Traditional Casinos Unite to Sue Polymarket: Argentina's Nationwide Ban Implemented

Author: Tim Alper Compiled by: Shenchao TechFlow A court in Buenos Aires has issued a nationwide ban against the crypto-based prediction market platform Polymarket, following joint legal complaints from Argentina’s traditional gambling industry and casino associations. The plaintiffs argued that Polymarket was operating an unlicensed gambling platform, allowing users—including minors—to place wagers without age or identity verification. Prosecutors supported the claims, stating that the platform functioned as a "clandestine online betting system" and permitted betting via cryptocurrency and credit cards without proper authorization. The ban comes amid broader regulatory scrutiny in Argentina, where lawmakers are also considering a bill to prohibit the use of cryptocurrencies and credit cards in online gambling entirely. This case mirrors similar legal challenges Polymarket has faced in other countries, including France and Romania, as well as regulatory pushback in the United States. Despite the ban, Polymarket continues to offer odds on Argentina-related events, including the potential dollarization of the economy and political outcomes.

marsbit03/18 04:08

Traditional Casinos Unite to Sue Polymarket: Argentina's Nationwide Ban Implemented

marsbit03/18 04:08

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